An Uncertain Alliance

The INDIA alliance formed by the opposition parties seems out of place

Indian politics today is a rich game of possibilities. The bipolar character is heavily influenced by regional parties that are poised to claim their share. When throwing up a challenge to the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the opposition parties thought it worthwhile to come on a single platform and give it a catchy name. Notwithstanding the ambitious goal, the INDIA alliance is going through severe turmoil.

In reality, the INDIA bloc is a slightly modified version of the erstwhile UPA. Possibly, this change has been done to shed the corruption baggage of the UPA bloc. The core of the new alliance, however, remains the same. The troubles started in West Bengal, where the understanding between Congress and TMC collapsed on seat-sharing terms. TMC was so self-confident in facing BJP’s challenge that they sought coalition on their terms, and it spoilt the prospect. On the other hand, the Congress high command is in no position to overlook the apathy of state leaders to ally with TMC. Congress grassroots workers insistently blame Mamata Banerjee for oppression. She has allegedly used police and administrative power to break the Congress strongholds in Malda and Murshidabad and reduced the Congress organization to insignificance. Gone are the days when the high command could bifurcate the state leadership's views and directly come to a pact with the TMC authority. Though the prospect of Congress going with CPM and the Indian Secular Front (ISF) seems feasible, without TMC, surely the alliance will be a lame duck.

Another trouble surfaced in Punjab, where the ruling Aam Admi Party (AAP) declared not to hold an alliance with Congress and questioned Congress’s credibility in the state. Overall, a loss of faith in Congress leadership is observed and the regional parties are not willing to give up enough seats to Congress. Similarly, Congress is bound to face seat-sharing hurdles with Shiv Sena in Maharashtra as well. Slugfest has started with functionaries of AAP and TMC openly ridiculing Congress. Such things have allowed the BJP to comment that the opposition has no common mission.

A well-planned tactic was unfolded when Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal proposed the name of Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge as the PM’s face of the alliance, in a bid to capitalize on Dalit vote bank against Modi’s OBC background. For the first time, in a Congress-lead coalition, the focus has been shifted away from the Gandhi-Nehru family by proposing the name of an outsider. It is no surprise that another hopeful for the post, Mayawati has kept her party BSP out of the platform. The most recent setback is caused by Nitish Kumar of JD (U) who joined the NDA, finding inadequate prospects for him in the INDIA bloc.

At this crucial juncture, Rahul Gandhi’s ‘Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra’ seems utterly miss-timed. When coalition talks are ripe, a ‘Unity-Yatra’, instead of a ‘Congress-Yatra’ would have been more appropriate. At this time he should have focused on strategic talks and seat sharing instead of touring the country. For Congress, Rahul’s earlier ‘Bharat Jodo Yatra’ was instrumental in winning the Telangana assembly election in 2023. That does not mean, the recent ‘Nyay Yatra’ will bring similar dividends, particularly when Modi is riding on the ‘Hindutva’ wave, post-Ram Mandir consecration.

Taking stock of BJP's strengths and weaknesses, we find them very strong in the North and West and weaker in the East and South. Recent surveys have predicted that the brand of Modi along with the rising Women’s vote bank and the Mandir issue will be major factors in 2024. Modi’s anti-incumbency is at the lowest and his acceptance is at an astonishing 76%. Modi’s image of constantly being in campaign mode differentiates him from any other leader. According to experts, BJP’s nationwide vote share could cross 40%, with a significant gain of 3%.

In the most important state of the ‘Hindi heartland’, Uttar Pradesh, BJP’s Smriti Irani snatched the Congress stronghold of Amethi in the last general election and has created her niche by devoting enough time to her constituency. So much so, that in the 2024 election, the seat is sure to be won by her, whether Rahul Gandhi or any other Congress heavyweight fights from there. Significantly, a different scenario is in the other Congress stronghold of Rae Bareilly, where Congress is still the favourite, whether Sonia Gandhi fights from there or Priyanka Gandhi takes up her mantle. But one crucial condition for the win is that they must have the support of the Samajwadi Party which they will surely obtain.

Considering the three recent assembly election wins in 2023 by BJP in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, most experts have rooted for NDA as the winner in 2024. However, Yogendra Yadav, the leading psephologist, has a slightly different view based on available data. According to him, the Election Commission website shows BJP’s total vote (48133363) in Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh combined to be less than Congress’s total vote (49077907) in the three states. It indicates Congress was not very badly defeated at all. In percentage share of votes, the difference between BJP and Congress in Rajasthan was some 2% and in Chhattisgarh, it was 4% in favour of BJP. It increased to 8- 8.5%  in MP, which was quite unexpected, since many experts expected Congress to win MP this time, riding on the anti-incumbency effect, after 18 years of BJP’s rule in the state.

In 2018 BJP lost these three states in assembly elections only to come back and win in the general election in 2019. This means assembly results are not always indicative of Lok Sabha results and there is often a distinct pattern of voting for the two types of elections in centre and state. For Congress going a little back in time, in the 2003 assembly election in these three states Congress lost the battle but came around in the 2004 Lok Sabha election to secure a good result.

However, if we look at the inherent strength of the INDIA bloc, these three states are not as important as states like Karnataka, Maharashtra, Bihar and West Bengal, where the alliance must fare well to gain a winning prospect in the total 65 seats up for contest.

Congress needs to fare much better in the seats where one-on-one fights will take place in North and West with BJP. Only through securing more seats in these one-on-one battles, can the alliance hope to come to a better position. If the INDIA bloc wants to decimate NDA to below 300, the seat-sharing efficiency and transfer of votes should be smooth.

How the INDIA bloc will capitalize on its strength is however not clear. For coalition politics, much flexibility and broad-mindedness are needed. We have seen the effectiveness of Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Jyoti Basu in this respect. If we take Basu’s instance, he was firm that no anti-Congress vote should be cast against Left Front in his state. That the Left Front still survives in West Bengal is indicative of the success of coalition politics. Such effective leadership is lacking in the opposition alliance at present. Whether Congress and its partners can come out of the conundrum to forge an effective alliance remains to be seen.